• Bitcoin shows no signs of weakness: new annual maximum at $15,950

  • Back
 by 

The price of Bitcoin continues to rise: for the first time since January 2018, the cryptocurrency has surpassed the $15,000 wall.

In the last 24 hours the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by more than 10%, passing the $15,000 wall for the first time since January 2018 and reaching a new annual high of $15,950.

Cointelegraph Markets‘ data shows that the BTC/USD pair touched $15,950 and then quickly contracted to $15,500. According to the Messari analysis platform, since 2009 Bitcoin has spent a little more than 20 days above $15,000 and only 19 days above $15,109.
BTC/USD, daily chart

„People will never say again that Bitcoin is dead,“ said Barry Silbert, CEO of Grayscale, in response to the recent price increase.

According to analyst Joseph Young, in the coming months we may see a trend similar to the one that occurred between November and December 2017, which ended with Bitcoin at an all-time high of $20,000. There are three reasons for this forecast: the post-halving cycle is starting to materialize, CSR suggests that there is still room for further growth and growth in derivatives markets is not yet overheated.

Also strongly positive is the opinion of analyst Keith Wareing, according to which Bitcoin’s last hurdle was at $14,400 and now the cryptocurrency is headed towards $17,000.

Bitcoin at 14.900$: 3 reasons why this increase could mark new historical highs

The price of Bitcoin has touched the $ 14.900: this bullish trend has several parameters and data on-chain already seen in 2017

Between November and December 2017, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) traced a parabolic growth ended at an all-time high of $20,000.

There are three reasons why Bitcoin could see a similar trend in the coming months. First, the post-halving cycle is starting to materialize. Second, the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that there is still room for a further increase. Third, the rise is not overheated, at least in the derivatives market.
The long-term CSR shows that Bitcoin is not overbought.

PlanB, creator of the Stock to Flow (S2F) indicator, shared a chart of Bitcoin’s long-term CSR. The indicator, used to measure whether an asset is overbought or oversold, indicates that BTC is still at a neutral level.
Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Although Bitcoin has increased from $10,500 to $14,900 within a month, CSR shows that there is still room for further growth.

By December 2017, for example, Bitcoin’s CSR had exceeded 95 points. When the RSI exceeds the 75 point threshold, traders start to consider the asset overbought. Currently, BTC’s long-term RSI remains below 70 points.
The post-halving cycle is materializing like the previous one.

In 2017, one of the main narratives about Bitcoin’s bull run was the halving in 2016. A halving block reward event, recurring about every four years, halves the BTCs produced by the miners.

The slowdown in Bitcoin production leads to an overall decrease in BTC’s inflows to the exchanges, causing a reduction in supply.

The last halving took place in May 2020, and in 2017 Bitcoin started its climb a few months after the halving was activated. The current increase of Bitcoin is in line with its previous macro movements.

The increase is not overheated, fewer sellers in the spot market

In the last five days, Bitcoin’s funding rate has remained in negative territory on the main exchanges, in particular on Binance Futures. This shows that the majority in the futures market had short positions on BTC.

A movement can be considered overheated when the funding rate of futures starts to increase above average, equivalent to 0.01%. In recent weeks, the BTC funding rate has remained between -0.01% and 0.01%, indicating a rather neutral situation in the derivatives market.

In addition to the uncrowded futures market, the spot market also has fewer sellers. According to TensorCharts, there are some sales orders at $15,000, but no big sellers at this level and above it.

Sales orders for Bitcoin on Binance

The low resistance between $15,000 and $20,000 increases the chances of a new record high in the coming months.

If the same post-halving cycle of 2017 were to occur, Bitcoin would theoretically peak in the second quarter of 2021. In that case, BTC may well exceed $20,000.

The current bullish trend shows an immensely strong momentum for Bitcoin, as the miners have started selling BTC. This suggests that the market is absorbing the sales pressure from the miners.